Drew
Drew Data Scientist

NFL 2024 Preseason Forecast Model

Updated Tuesday mornings following the conclusion of each NFL week.

Full Season Forecast

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Regular Season Forecast

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Betting Tips

  • The Eagles have great Super Bowl value at +1400. Our forecast gives them 1/12.5 Super Bowl odds and a 28% chance to get to the NFC championship game.
  • For a sleeper Super Bowl pick, the Falcons at +3000 is our recommended bet. They are projected to have the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL and they have a 59% chance to win their division and play at least 1 home playoff game. They also have the 4th best odds in the NFC to to earn the first round playoff bye.
  • The Browns to make the playoffs at +145 is great value for a team with a 43% chance, despite a challenging division.
  • The Lions to earn NFC #1 seed at +600 and the Chiefs to earn AFC #1 seed +350 both payout high for their respective odds (Lions 17% and Chiefs 23%).
  • The Rams to win their division at +350 has slight edge given their 23% probability to take the NFC West. All 31 other division winner bets on DraftKings have negative edge.

Methodology - The probabilities are determined from the results of running 1 million simulations of the 2024 season. Inputs into the simulation are derived from up-to-date Vegas odds, team schedules, historic and current NFL data, and the NFL playoff format. For each team, our model calculates expectations and a variance factor (the likelihood that they sway up or down from expectations). We then let the simulation run, and odds are generated as the number of occurrences for each team divided by 1 million (total simulation runs). We leverage the following Python open source libraries: numpy, scipy.stats, skewnorm, random, nfl_data_py. Following each week, the full simulation runs for refreshed odds.

For questions, comments, suggestions, or access to the data, please reach out to Drew or Danny.

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