The NBA has extremely high expectations for the 2023 draft class, led by French phenom Victor Wembanyama. However, it’s not just the 7’2” generational prospect that fans and coaches are looking forward to this upcoming season. The wide range of talent has plenty of teams excited and optimistic about their future. For the 9 lottery picks that played NCAA men’s basketball, we’ve taken snapshots from our custom advanced analytics scouting report to get a feel for what we might expect out of each player’s rookie season.

Note about the data:

This data has been captured from ESPN.com for NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball games. Therefore, we only have scouting reports available for drafted NCAA players. Also, about 70% of NCAA men’s D1 basketball games have available shot location data on ESPN. While some data is missing, these heat map charts serve as close representations for each player for the entire season.

Notes about the graphs:

Heat Map:

This shows a player’s shooting percentage from each part of the court, where data is available. Red refers to above NCAA D1 average and blue is below average. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) refers to a weighted field goal percentage that gives 3-point shots a 50% heavier weight than 2-point shots.

Full Season Stats:

Averages are provided followed by the players percentile within all NCAA D1 men’s basketball. Points Differential Per 40 Minutes: A team’s net point differential standardized per 40 minutes of game time while each player is on or off the court, throughout the season.

Team Time to Shoot:

This chart breaks the 30 second shot clock into 5 second buckets, showing the percentage of shots that are taken within each bucket, for a sense of the team’s pace of play.

Five Minute Buckets:

These charts break the 40 minute games into 5 minute consecutive buckets, showing how a player’s trends throughout the game for each respective statistic.

Shooting After Offensive Rebounds:

Chart on left shows who shoots within 5 seconds after the a team gets an offensive rebound. Chart on right shows what happens within 5 seconds after the given player gets an offensive rebound.

Top 3 Assists by Player:

This chart shows who a player gets most assists to and from throughout the season.

Scouting Reports:

For comments and suggestions, please reach out to danmalter@gmail.com and abmalter12@gmail.com

Pick 2: Charlotte Hornets select Brandon Miller, Alabama

Brandon Miller shined from both wing 3-point locations this season and sits near the top percentile in just about every statistical category. Above his great individual stats however, is that Alabama had over a 14 point per 40-minute boost with Miller on the court compared to when he was off the court.

Pick 6: Orlando Magic select Anthony Black, Arkansas

Anthony Black doesn’t stand out as a notably great shooter but does it all well. He is an excellent defender, can get to the rim to score, and is a great passer. Arkansas was a below average team without him on the court, as he gave his team a near 10-point swing while playing. As Arkansas’ point guard this season, he also liked to play at a fast pace as about 60% of possessions his team got a shot off in the first 15 seconds of the shot clock.

Pick 8: Indiana Pacers select Jarace Walker, Houston

There are two words to describe Jarace Walker: effective and clutch. He’s a more conservative shooter than other stars around the NCAA, but his effective field goal percentage matches that of Brandon Miller. He can score from anywhere on the court and is arguably more valuable on defense. Amazingly, in the last 5 minutes of games, his 2-point shooting percentage sits over 80%, making him one of the best closers in men’s college basketball this season.

Pick 9: Utah Jazz select Taylor Hendricks, UCF

Playing for a smaller school, we unfortunately are not able to get as much shooting location data on Hendricks, but what we do know is that he is completely dominant with the ball down low. He also comes away with a ton of blocks and UCF is a completely different team with him on the court vs off the court.

Pick 10: Oklahoma City Thunder select Carson Wallace, Kentucky

Looking at Carson Wallace’s 5-minute bucket stats for both points and steals, you can see he comes out of the gates on fire, both to start the game and to start the second half. He also turns a gear back up in the final 5 minutes of play but has inconstant trends throughout the rest of the game. He’s among the top in the nation in both assists and steals, and for a guard does an excellent job scoring in the paint.

Pick 11: Orlando Magic select Jett Howard, Michigan

Son of 19-year NBA veteran and Michigan coach Juwan Howard, Jett stands out as an effective scorer, great passer, sharp 3-point shooter, and someone who comes out of the gates hot. Michigan, however, played better this season with Jett off the court than on.

Pick 12: Dallas Mavericks select Dereck Lively II, Duke

While not much of a scorer for Duke this season, big man Dereck Lively was a force down low in the paint on both sides of the ball. His almost 2 and a half blocks per game were among the top in men’s college basketball this season, and his ability to rebound and give his team second chance points made him a nightmare for opponents. He works well with point guards, as Duke’s guards Roach and Proctor fed him assists often and he was able to feed Roach back. Despite his only 5 points per game and lack of shooting anywhere outside of the rim (in his below shot chart we are looking at percent of shot attempts from each zone as opposed to shooting percentage), Duke had an amazing 17-point positive swing per 40 minutes with Lively on the court, making him one of the most valuable men’s college basketball players in the country.

Pick 13: Toronto Raptors select Grady Dick, Kansas

Sharpshooter Grady Dick gave NCAA’s toughest conference, the Big 12, a lot of problems this year, with an effective field goal percentage of 55%, his shooting ability around the court makes him incredibly difficult to guard. He stays consistent throughout the game and gave Kansas a major boost while on the court.

Pick 14: New Orleans Pelicans select Jordan Hawkins, UConn

Another great shooter, Jordan Hawkins was consistent and effective with the ball all season long. He was deadly from 3, can get to the rim, and his shooting helped lead UConn to a national championship.